Greetings. Our broader region is going through hours and days of great turmoil, with the Middle East at war, and broader concern about how markets will react to the flare-up following the U.S. attack on Iran. Not that Saturday’s development wasn’t the most likely scenario for the past two months, but whenever it happens, the atmosphere in the first days is tense. In any case, the question now is not so much who will prevail in this war. I think Iran turned out to be weaker than even the Americans themselves believed, since its central target—Khamenei—didn’t even escape for a few hours. A ruthless dictator and a harsh and inhumane dictatorship was the regime (47 years) in Iran, regardless of how little “humanitarian” Trump’s motive may have been—and everyone understands this except for some fanatical leftists domestically and, of course, the pro-Russian–Turkish axis that has obvious interests and a presence here in Greece. You may choose not to be with the Americans, but not with the barbaric mullahs. Or not?
Athens, impacts…
Now Athens is monitoring developments. I don’t think that, as a country, we will suffer anything different from the other Western economies. Of course there will be a negative impact on oil prices, but that’s as far as it goes—and we’ll see for how long—because, I repeat, the U.S. attack on Iran was not something unexpected, so the markets were anticipating it. We’ll see from this morning how they behave. And of course we’ll see what political solution—what regime—this all ends up with in Iran, because that is the more difficult part than the military strike. Who will replace the mullahs. Let me note, of course, that for the first time in recent decades the wealthy Arab states also saw what it’s like to… have missiles raining down on your head, and for this reason I believe Iran found itself alone after the overall attacks across the Gulf, and the regime will not last more than a few days.
The Europeans’ discussions
Since Saturday, when operations in Iran began, K.M. has been on the phone with various leaders of Arab countries and the EU. And while with the Arabs the subject of discussion is clearer, with the Europeans there is a given concern, since the EU was not part of the planning from the outset and is now trying to understand what is coming, beyond finding a common position. Yesterday there was a meeting of European foreign ministers (Gerapetritis participated), but it remains to be seen whether European leaders will meet, even by teleconference, before the Summit on March 19–20. The truth is, however, that as long as operations continue, the unknowns in the equation are many.
Kikilias’s concern
Kikilias is particularly—and understandably—troubled, and he has been in open communication with all shipping companies for many days. Because the warning signs were available from the previous week, the necessary recommendations had been made to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s one thing to say and another to do. Obviously, the primary concern at the Ministry of Shipping—and it was raised at KYSEA—is the safety of crews. From there on, the first tabletop exercises are already taking place regarding possible economic consequences, since it is a given that for some days or even weeks there will be turbulence.
Migration
When there is a crisis in the Middle East, a standing concern has to do with migration and the prospect of flows toward Europe. That is why the Minister of Migration has been a regular participant in KYSEA for years. Theoretically, a full-scale conflagration in Iran could create migratory flows toward Turkey, with which it shares a 540-kilometer border. Iran also hosts millions of Afghans. Of course, the first who do not want more migrants are the Turks themselves, who still host several hundred thousand, and this has a cost for their economy. I understand that a relevant briefing was given by Plevris at Saturday’s KYSEA, but in Athens this risk is currently considered rather secondary.
Mitsotakis and nuclear energy
The first time K.M. spoke about the prospect of nuclear energy being used in Greece, he was treated almost like… an alien. The truth is that nuclear energy is debatable, but it is not only for producing weapons. In this light, Mitsotakis’s consistent engagement with the issue is of great interest, as is his presence at the second Nuclear Energy Summit to be held in Paris on March 10—assuming, of course, there is no upheaval of planning due to the torrential developments.
Banks – Pierrakakis
Otherwise, the letter from the competent secretary-general Alampasi to the banks, on Pierrakakis’s instructions, which Proto Thema published yesterday, is of particular interest. The banks did the unthinkable and infuriating thing of monitoring those who enter the out-of-court settlement platform, and anyone who even merely logged in to see what applies had their cards and loans cut off—they were blacklisted! They received a letter from the Ministry of Finance warning them that this is illegal and abusive, not to mention that it violates personal data, and we’ll see what follows. I remind you that a few days ago Pierr also sent them another letter telling them to stop the tricks with ATM fees. I, now—without having done reporting—ask: why do I think the next extraordinary levy that will fall will be on the banks?
Tempi rally – Karystianou
On Saturday we also had the grim anniversary of the Tempi accident. The rally in Syntagma was large, around 60–70,000 people, nothing like last year’s hundreds of thousands who believed the lies about cover-ups, solvents, and other such snakes concocted by the opposition, some media or social media, and the government’s inability—and that of M.M.—to confront them. A significant element of the rally the day before yesterday was that the parents of the victims did not even allow Karystianou to speak, a fact that may prove that the countdown has begun.
They hold their breath and continue
We may have expected military involvement in Iran, but for those involved in the markets the sky has fallen on their heads, and we are awaiting developments, because it will take some days before it becomes clear where things are going. In the banks, the situation creates the same uncertainty everyone else in the market feels. Especially for Cyprus, which particularly interests us, banking sources report that there is no specific problem beyond the generally negative climate. One point that bankers focused their attention on was shipping loans. Sources say that for the time being no risk is apparent, because ships remain insured under their existing contracts and shipowners have received warnings from insurance companies not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, because then insurance coverage is terminated. This situation creates a problem—let us hope temporarily—in the movement of oil, but not for the ships and, by extension, not for corporate lending. Decisions in the banks are to continue as normal until the situation clears up; after all, there is no other option, and for this reason they continue to plan their scheduled presentations in London and Athens as usual. Their greatest concern at this moment, however, is that any potential escalation of the conflict might spoil the momentum of the stock market and hit their shares. That’s all for now, and we’ll see.
Is National Bank buying a stake in Allianz SA and Allianz buying 8.39% of National Bank?
As far as the stock market is concerned, the bad news is that the war broke out at a time when quite a few deals are underway that the market has not yet “smelled.” Deals which, if they are not disrupted by the general climate, will bring new transactions to the fore. On this occasion, let me also mention a rumor: the presentations of banks’ results have been completed, as have the conference calls with analysts. The biggest surprise, according to this column, came from the side of National Bank and was the silence—once again—of management on bancassurance. All excuses have now been exhausted: exclusivity with Ethniki Asfalistiki, clauses, offers, National Bank’s participation in the scheme, etc. On November 27, 2025, Piraeus Bank bought National Bank’s shares in the insurer. Three months have now passed in which NBG has been absolutely free to enter into a new agreement, and before that even more months during which National Bank was running tenders, negotiating with insurers, etc., without any result. National Bank’s network is considered—and is—prime real estate for bancassurance, while there are insurers whose very survival is at issue without such an agreement. Why, then, do we still not have an agreement, especially when the latest information was that National Bank had reached a deal with Allianz? Up to this point, the above reflects the column’s concern. The rumor that has recently emerged in the market has it that the delay has arisen because National Bank and Allianz are changing the structure of their agreement. Specifically, it is rumored that National Bank will acquire a stake in Allianz’s insurance company, while at the same time the German insurance giant will acquire the 8.39% stake in National Bank held by the Hellenic Asset Development Fund. If this is true, then higher powers are involved, approvals are needed at different levels, and therefore the delay is justified, as are Mylonas’s trips abroad and the visit of Allianz’s CEO to Athens, etc. Patience—after all, if the information is correct, it will not take long to become visible.
Stuffed vine leaves change hands – VNK Capital found a buyer for Palirroia
Seven years after its entry, VNK Capital of Vasilis and Nelli Katsos is preparing to exit Palirroia of Konstantinos Souliotis. It will transfer the 36% stake it acquired in 2019 to a strategic investor. According to reliable information, the deal has been completed and only the formal announcement remains. In 2019, the Katsos family’s family fund bought 36% of the food industry based in Politika, Evia, which exported more than 80% of its production. In recent years Palirroia cleaned up its balance sheet. The group’s consolidated turnover reached €117 million in 2025—up from €113 million in 2024—with net profits of €26 million, despite adverse conditions: U.S. tariffs, war in Israel, and pressure on production costs. Palirroia now produces 2 million stuffed vine leaves per day and maintains production facilities in Greece, Bulgaria, China, and Jordan.
The golden president and arrogance
Since the discussion above was about stuffed vine leaves, in a paradoxical way a president of a newly formed fund in our market came to mind—someone who draws attention not for his investment successes but for what he says—at least offensively—against his colleagues, namely other funds doing the same job. He calls them incompetent, labels them fools; no one knows anything—only he possesses the one true truth, and so on. I don’t know how things are done in America, where he was (and which he constantly invokes as proof of others’… failure), but here, if you’re serious, you let your work speak. In any case, this individual is still going through that golden period when the fund’s performance cannot be assessed, because he has made only one investment. It would nevertheless be good if those who provided him with capital (HDB, etc.) advised him to park his arrogance. It would be to everyone’s benefit.
Trastor REIC heading for a €150 million capital increase
Once again, Trastor REIC is preparing to take a decision for a capital increase, which, as everything indicates, will be set at higher levels, in order to increase the free float of its share and finance new property acquisitions. The REIC, in which Piraeus Bank holds 98.6% of the company, had also taken a decision last year for a capital increase for the same purposes, aiming to raise €120 million, a move that did not succeed. Now the figure rises to as much as €150 million, a proposal that the board of directors will submit to the Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for March 20. The agenda includes, on the one hand, the revocation of the previous March 2025 decision on the increase and, on the other, granting authorization to the board of directors to decide on an increase of the company’s share capital through cash contributions, in an amount not exceeding in total three times the paid-in share capital, with limitation and/or abolition of pre-emptive rights of existing shareholders, through a combined public offering in Greece and/or abroad. In the event that the required free float—amounting to 15% of the total common shares of the company—is not achieved, regardless of the amount covered by the capital increase, the increase will be cancelled in its entirety. The proposal to revoke the previous decision is deemed necessary in order, on the one hand, to serve the offering of shares to foreign investors abroad and, on the other, to increase the size of the increase so that additional capital can be raised and the company can more effectively comply with its regulatory obligations regarding share dispersion. For its part, Piraeus Bank is expected to remain with a high stake. At the same time, the company is also proceeding with the sale of properties that do not fall within the immediate interest of its portfolio. A month ago, in early February, it was decided to sell two properties: specifically, an underground parking station at the “Aithrio” shopping center in Maroussi, at the intersection of Agiou Konstantinou 40 and Sfaktirias streets, with a total area of 16,285 sq.m. and a book value of €3.41 million, for a price of €4.05 million; and a standalone office building with underground parking spaces in Maroussi, at 57 Agiou Konstantinou Street, with a total area of 3,711 sq.m. and a book value of €7 million, for a price of €7.7 million. The sales of these two properties are expected to be completed within the first half of 2026.
Choppy waters at Export Credit Greece. Sudden departure of Effie Deli
Just thirteen months after taking up her duties, Effie Deli suddenly resigned—according to reliable information—from the position of CEO of Export Credit Greece, the state export credit agency supervised by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. E. Deli had been appointed to the former Export Credit Organization in January 2025 as an executive with a strong résumé (National Bank, Eurobank, Accenture, London School of Economics), with a clear development agenda. The goal was to create new services, strengthen exports, and modernize the organization. The start was optimistic. The outcome, however, was different. According to information, behind the decision to remove her lie major internal tensions and conflicts with executives of the organization. Reliable sources say that a technocratically trained executive from the insurance market is being groomed for the position, with the aim of completing the changes at ECG in cooperation with the General Accounting Office of the State and the European Investment Bank.
How the crisis in Iran reshuffles the “deck” at the Athens Stock Exchange
And we return to the big issue of the war in Iran, as geopolitical tremors in the Middle East are expected to cause “arrhythmias” on Athinon Avenue, with specific sectors on the front line of exposure. The impact is twofold: on the one hand higher energy costs, and on the other turbulence in supply chains. The shares of HELLENiQ ENERGY and Motor Oil are the first to come under the microscope. The crisis in Iran automatically entails a rise in international crude oil prices. Although this may theoretically boost the valuation of their inventories, prolonged instability and the possible compression of refining margins due to expensive feedstock create an environment of intense volatility. In addition, Motor Oil, due to its strategic position and export activities, is being closely monitored for difficulties in maritime transport. Listed companies with exposure to shipping or companies affected by freight costs are also on alert. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader flare-up in the region “shoot up” war-risk insurance premiums and tanker freight rates, which translates into increased revenues but also operational risks. On the other hand, airlines—such as Aegean—are under pressure, as increased fuel costs are the biggest “enemy” of their profitability. The Viohalco group and Titan are indirectly affected through energy costs. Cement and steel production are energy-intensive, and any rally in oil or natural gas prices—which often follows oil in geopolitical crises—burdens production costs. However, Cenergy may see increased demand for energy infrastructure projects, as Europe is expected to accelerate its decoupling from unstable energy sources. While banks may come under generalized pressure due to a “risk-off” trend (flight from risk), the real effects will be judged by the duration of the crisis and whether it translates into permanently higher inflation, overturning plans for interest rate cuts.
Shipping holds its breath at Hormuz
We said above that bankers are not (yet) worried about loans to shipping companies, but the new flare-up in the Middle East certainly worries those who live and breathe shipping. Coordinated military escalation brings back to the forefront, in a violent way, a question the market hoped had entered a “manageable” trajectory: how safe are the main arteries of global maritime trade now? The situation is not merely tense. It is fluid and potentially explosive. The Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden form a single arc of instability, where state and non-state actors test the limits of naval deterrence. The market’s fears are specific: war-risk insurance premiums on the rise, shipowners considering costly rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, and above all an environment in which GPS and AIS can no longer be considered given safety tools. When the electronic picture blurs, risk multiplies. At the same time, however, prospects also emerge. Shipping has historically demonstrated high adaptability. Strengthened security protocols, greater cooperation with naval forces, and increased investment in resilient navigation technologies are already back on the table. The critical question is not whether tensions will affect navigation—that has already happened. The real bet is the duration. If the crisis drags on, the global supply chain will face a new wave of pressure. If it de-escalates quickly, the market will absorb the shock. For now, however, the seas of the Middle East once again remind us that geopolitics never truly leaves the bridge of ships.
Containerships make U-turns, while the market counts barrels
The shipping market did not wait for an official blockade announcement to understand what was happening. The Strait of Hormuz does not need physical barriers to “close.” Fear is enough. The first move—message—came from the German Hapag-Lloyd, which announced a suspension of transits “until further notice.” Behind the scenes, this translates simply: when a major liner operator pulls the handbrake, the rest reassess the risk. France’s CMA CGM did not withdraw en masse, but some of its vessels turned back before exiting the Gulf—an image that by itself captures the nervousness. MarineTraffic data on Saturday night showed very few units transmitting north of Musandam. And according to Rystad Energy, up to 15 million barrels per day appear to have “frozen,” with a net loss of 8–10 million barrels—i.e., cargoes equivalent to four to five VLCCs per day. In practice, even without an official blockade, the market is experiencing the same effects. The essence is that shipping fears duration. If the crisis becomes entrenched, Asia–Europe routes will be rewritten, freight rates will react, and the supply chain will suffer a new shock.
Behind the scenes with a Wall Street scent: Greeks play defense and offense in ships
On a purely business level, the past week in the secondhand market resembled a well-tuned hedge fund. Greek shipowners bought selectively and sold en masse wherever they saw a premium. “Smart money” moved simultaneously in bulkers and tankers, confirming that Greek shipping continues to play chess on three boards. In dry bulk, Greek interests were behind the purchase of the ILLAWARRA FORTUNE, a Post-Panamax 95,707 dwt (2013, Koyo Dockyard – Mihara, Japan), which passed to Velos Tankers Ltd, of Paschalis Diamantidis, with the next dry-dock scheduled for April 2026. The move signals positioning in mid-life tonnage with a visible cash-flow horizon—a classic “value play” logic. At the same time, Greeks also appeared on the sellers’ side. The Kamsarmax EPIPHANIA (80,276 dwt, 2012, STX Offshore & Shipbuilding – Changwon, South Korea) reportedly changed hands at USD 17.5 million, while the geared Supramax THEODORA (53,569 dwt, 2008, Iwagi Zosen – Kamijima, Japan) closed at USD 13 million. The pattern is clear: harvesting value in older tonnage. In tankers, Greek buying interest was even stronger. The LR1 AGILE (73,611 dwt, 2007, New Times Shipbuilding – Jingjiang, China) was acquired for USD 13.5 million, epoxy-coated and with prompt delivery in Singapore—a move that “smells” like tactical positioning in the products market. The 12-month figures confirm the strategy: 149 newbuild orders, 194 secondhand purchases, and 303 sales. Greeks are not merely expanding their fleets; they are aggressively reshaping them.
War with bombs and Artificial Intelligence
A few days ago it became known that there was a hard clash between Anthropic, which created the AI application Claude, and the leadership of the U.S. Army—i.e., the Pentagon. U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth issued an ultimatum to CEO Dario Amodei to grant unlimited use of Claude for any “lawful military purpose.” Anthropic refused, considering that two safety guardrails must exist for the use of its services: (1) no mass surveillance of U.S. citizens, and (2) no creation of autonomous weapons systems—i.e., there must always be human control. On February 27, President Donald Trump called Anthropic’s executives “leftwing nut jobs” on Truth Social and ordered the immediate cessation of its use by all federal agencies. The Pentagon placed Anthropic on the national-security “blacklist,” where Chinese and Russian companies are usually listed. Just a few hours later, US Central Command—according to corroborated reports published by many reliable U.S. media outlets—used Claude for intelligence assessment, target identification, and combat-scenario simulation for the air strikes on Iran. Until that day, Claude was the only AI model in classified U.S. military systems, under a contract worth up to USD 200 million. Its integration was carried out through cooperation with Palantir and Amazon Web Services. It is worth noting that Claude had also been used in the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro in January. This is the first time an AI company has been placed on the U.S. national-security blacklist not for violating laws, but for refusing to violate its own ethical lines. OpenAI benefited from the clash, as Sam Altman concluded a cooperation agreement with the Pentagon, while stating that he “shares Anthropic’s reservations.”
Block, the stock that soars with 4,000 layoffs
Let’s continue with news from the U.S., because that is where the play is being written that we will see very soon in our own regions as well. Jack Dorsey announced that Block (parent of Square, Square Cash, TIDAL, and Bitkey) will cut more than 4,000 jobs—nearly half the company—in the name of artificial intelligence and new productivity. The stock market celebrated. The share price jumped +25% in after-hours trading, in a company that for three years seemed stuck on the board. Investors applaud jobs being lost, as long as profit margins swell. But here the real bill begins. Because if mid- and lower-tier office jobs start disappearing en masse, it won’t only be income that is lost: consumption will be hit, and thus revenue. Universal basic income ceases to be a theory of economists and AI entrepreneurs like Altman and Elon Musk. It will evolve into an economic necessity—for Europe and, of course, for Greece.
Wall Street “felt” the war, with technology and bitcoin as casualties
The drums of war and bombardment had been heard by Wall Street since last Friday. The first casualties of the war were overvalued technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin. The past few days had brought a relief rally, sending the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Index up 7% from Tuesday to Thursday. On Friday, sellers took the upper hand; the IGV ETF immediately fell -1.3%. Other tech stocks were in worse shape, with NVIDIA continuing its downward path (-4.2%) after its earnings announcement—-9.4% in two days. Apple fell -3.2%, while Meta Platforms lost -1.3%. Two of the “Magnificent Seven” managed to finish the day in positive territory: Amazon.com rose +1% after signing an agreement to invest USD 50 billion in an AI startup, OpenAI. Google’s parent, Alphabet, gained 1.4% on the day. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index ended Friday’s session down -4.9%, after Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo published a note warning of new “cockroaches.” This is the term used by Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, last October to warn of new potential bankruptcies following the collapse of two companies linked to the automotive industry. Cryptocurrencies are also among the first victims of the war. Bitcoin is trading today at USD 66,334, a breath away from its 52-week low (USD 60,187) and in free fall from the all-time high of USD 126,186 it touched just a few months earlier. Bitcoin’s performance from last year to today stands at -24.94%, making it the worst investment on the table of major asset classes. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which were absorbing 46,000 BTC over the same period last year, have turned into net sellers. The Fear & Greed Index remains stuck at “Extreme Fear” for a third consecutive week, while on the notorious prediction platform Polymarket, 62% of participants expect BTC to fall below USD 50,000 at some point in 2026.
