This is an extraordinary opportunity for Europe to become a global player, but the question is whether it can truly unite, whether it can adopt a coherent strategic policy away from nationalist rivalries said Fareed Zakaria, one of the most prominent political analysts and journalists worldwide in an interview with "Ta Nea". His weekly international and domestic affairs program on CNN has featured interviews with Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin, among many others, while his column for the "Washington Post" is among the longest-running for the newspaper. "Ta Nea" spoke with him via Zoom about Ukraine, Europe, the USA, Trump, his latest book "Age of Revolutions".
You said that 2026 is a pivotal year for the fate of Ukraine and the fate of the Western alliance. Let's talk about Ukraine first. What should we expect? Do you see any signs that are encouraging that the negotiations might lead to a deal soon?
On the ground there is actually a lot to be hopeful for. Putin has staked everything on this battle. He does not care how many soldiers he loses. And yet the Russians have barely gained 1% of territory in the last 18 months. The Ukrainians are absolutely heroically holding the ground. They have innovated technologically in brilliant ways. Their morale remains strong. The Europeans have completely stepped up and are fully funding not just the Ukrainian defence efforts, but Ukraine itself. The big challenge is that the United States under Trump is essentially trying to side with Russia to close out this conflict. Without it being blatantly obvious they are taking the Russian position on many of the negotiating issues and they put pressure on Zelensky. It's the wrong approach politically and morally, but also because the Ukrainians are not going to simply surrender away their freedom, their independence, their sovereignty. It's not going to work. Everything depends on whether the Trump administration realises that the better path to peace is to put more pressure on Russia and less pressure on Ukraine, get the Russians to understand that they are on a losing struggle. There is an obvious deal. Ukraine loses the territory it has lost. In return they must get absolutely secure security guarantees. I would prefer if they got some kind of guarantee from NATO, but if not, from the US and Europe. The path for success is absolutely watertight security guarantees, maybe with some European troops in Ukraine. The question is, can we get there.
Concerning the Western alliance what signs do you think are needed to understand whether it will survive?
The Western alliance is much stronger than people think. There's no question that what Trump has done is damaging. Trump has fundamentally not understood the value and scope of the Western alliance, what it has done to stabilise the world and how much it's benefited America. To the Trump administration and particularly to the MAGA kind of leaders like JD Vance, Europe is like addressing a woke Ivy League university. It contains all the values of liberalism gone too far that they don't like. But Europe is not going to change its free speech laws because J.D. Vance wants to make a fancy speech about it. Those laws are in place for deep historical reasons in countries like Germany. Once you get past a certain amount of ideological point scoring and rhetorical bromides and assaults, you get to the practical question of where do you go. What the Trump administration will find, is that it's better to do things with partners, to have the support of other countries, of other militaries. There will be less of the kind of dissolution of the alliance with one caveat. If the Trump administration really breaks with Europe on Ukraine. That will be a big problem.
But until the Trump administration comes to that realization where does Europe stand? The German Chancellor says that the world order has ceased to exist, that Germany should take responsibility. Could Germany become the leader of a new world order and of Europe?
This is an extraordinary moment and opportunity for Europe. Let's imagine that Donald Trump didn't exist. Europe is the second most dynamic economic area in the world after the United States. Europe already spends a great deal on defence, but it does not have much impact on the world because it's not unified, it doesn't have a strategic, coherent identity and policy. For the good of the West, of the liberal international order, of all the values it is important that Europe be a player and not a museum in the world. This is an opportunity for Europe to become a player. The question is, can Europe actually come together. Right now you hear a lot of rhetoric, but when you get to the reality of, say, defence spending, of, say, investing in air defences, we get back to the same nationalist rivalries. Your question is exactly right because you need a leader. Germany can play that role. Modern Germany is completely different from the Germany of the past. It understands that to lead today means you are doing it entirely by consensus with other countries. Germany has to do it. In Europe today only the Germans have money and they have a really powerful industrial base. Germany can create the kind of military industrial complex that the United States has. The challenge is not technical. The challenge is political. Europe has always stopped short of this kind of coherent strategic policy because policymakers want to retain the option of being in control of their own foreign and defence policy. You're not going to change that completely, but on some crucial key areas you can do it. The model is trade. Imagine if they could do the same on defence.
Who benefits the most by the US economic policy, is it China? And who are the losers? Is the US a loser?
China has been the greatest beneficiary of the Trump administration's policies without any question. The United States went from being the leader of a free trade ecosystem and alliance that included the richest, most powerful, most productive, most technologically advanced countries in the world, except for China, to having spent the last year creating divisions within that alliance. It's completely self defeating. The Chinese have benefited, but they have not been able to create an alternative ecosystem. China's close allies are basically North Korea, Iran, Russia, not exactly a galaxy of the world's most productive and important countries. It's a kind of a rogues' gallery. But they are a very powerful adversary. China is dominating the green technology space and the world of advanced manufacturing. China produces one out of every two robots produced in the world. In AI, the US is ahead, but China is not far behind. In the third World everybody is using Chinese AI models. The Chinese are not trying to create a consumerist free market economy in which every person has maximum income. They are trying to produce an industrial economy that dominates in manufacturing, in frontier technologies, in the pharmaceutical and bio space, and they are succeeding.
With an unreliable US on one side and a highly competitive China on the other isn't it difficult for Europe to navigate through?
It's hard, there's no question about it. But if Europe truly can reform, this is the second most dynamic economic area in the world after the United States. Twenty years ago the US and
Europe were comparable. In the last 20 years the US has taken off, Europe has stagnated. Two big mistakes. One, the disastrous experiment with austerity that Greece in part suffered because of it. Europe went after the 2008 crisis for austerity. The US did not. The US and the Eurozone were roughly the same size in 2008. US is now 50% larger. Second, we are in the midst of an information revolution and Europe has not played in that space. In the information space you need great scientific talent, engineers, venture capital and scale. You need billions of users. The US has engineers, venture capital and scale. China the same. Europe has great scientific talent, it has and can attract venture capital. The problem is scale. Europe is not actually a single market. Any tech entrepreneur will tell you, the reason I go to America is that in Europe, I am actually dealing with 27
Πηγή: tanea.gr
